Category Archives: Ideas

There are always some ideas or questions that I think in my mind, I thought it would be good to record them down

Questioning probability – Controlled probability theory

Questioning the premise

We have been taught concepts of probability theory since young. A common probability theory statement goes like this:

“If we toss a fair coin, there are two equally likely outcomes: a head, or a tail.” This would imply that both the outcomes have 50% chance of happening. However, I would like to question this premise that chance of each outcome is 50%, i.e. a predefined constant.

Proposing an alternative theory

I propose that the probability can be controlled, given a fair environment (in this case a fair coin is used).

There are three methods that the control(manipulation) can be achieved:

1. The observable physical parameters(such as wind speed or humidity of air) can be manipulated, without being noticed by ordinary human beings.

In this method, the change in physical parameters can be very minor. Hence it would appear to ordinary human beings that the event occurs in a fair environment, but in actual fact the parameters have been manipulated to favour a certain outcome.

2. The measurable physics constants(such as gravity or speed or light) can be manipulated, without being noticed by ordinary human beings.

Similarly in this method, the manipulation can be done in a subtle manner such that the event appears to be fair but in actual fact the slight change of physics constants can be controlled to favour a certain outcome.

3. There exist non-observable parameters that can be manipulated, which have impact on observable events.

If this is true, it would be impossible for someone who has no knowledge of such parameters to know that manipulation is carried out, hence the event would appear to be fair. This would also imply that our knowledge about the observables is not complete.

It should be noted that although the nature of the three methods are different, they are not mutually exclusive, i.e. they can be combined to controlled an event.

(Attempted) Proof of the theory

The proof would involve proving the three proposed methods to control the event:

1. On controlling the observable physical parameters:

This method can be proved in the future. It is already theoretically possible to control these parameters. The only reason that this may be impractical is that ordinary human beings lack the abilities to interpret and manipulate such parameters. Hence, as soon as we can develop such abilities through evolution or artificial engineering, and we are able to take advantage of that to control the outcome of events, we can prove that this way is valid and practical.

2.On controlling the measurable physics constants:

This method is hard to prove.  Currently we lack equipments to detect minor change in physics constants. In fact, we cannot even accurately measure these constants due to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.

3. On controlling the non-observable parameters: 

This method is even harder to prove. It would require the knowledge of non-observable parameters to prove that such way exists. Even if the proof is done, it would be impossible for ordinary human beings without the required knowledge to comprehend and agree upon.

Implications of the theory

The implications, if the theory is true, is beyond imagination. It would mean that everything based on probability and statistics theory would collapse. Essentially almost everything can be controlled by those who have such ability.

Additional comments

This is one of the many interesting/crazy/random ideas that I have, you can check out here for more of them.

I am planning to develop a game, using the some of the concepts in this theory, leave a comment if you are interested to find out more about it.

This is too scary to be true.

Programming concepts in real life – Algorithm

This is the second post on the series of interesting thoughts of “programming concepts in real-life”. Today it occurred to me that one fundamental concept of programming – algorithm, is also heavily used in real life outside the IT world.

What is algorithm

Algorithm is a step-by-step procedure for calculations.

Algorithm used in programming

There are a lot of examples of algorithms in programming, the most basic ones include  breadth-first search (BFS) and  depth-first search (DFS).

Algorithm in real life

Algorithms are applied in our everyday life.

DFS/BFS (Depth-first-search/Breadth-first-search)

For example, for a freshman who just entered NUS, he may choose to study the area of his interest, such as marketing or psychology. He can do this in two ways, one is to really devote all the time and effort into this area and do nothing else for a very long time. So for marketing, he/she will be learning introductory modules on marketing, intermediate modules on marketing, advanced modules on marketing or even do a research on marketing. Only after he/she feels there is nothing else to do on marketing, then the person will consider other options. And surprisingly(or rather not surprisingly), this is exactly the concept of a particular algorithm called DFS. In DFS, you prioritize depth more than breadth, so when you have a chance to go wider or deeper, you will go deeper first.

And of course you can see how the opposite algorithm BFS works for real life. That is when a person takes all the introductory modules for different areas, however after all that still indecisive enough to make a decision for specialization. So he/she would take all the intermediate level modules for different areas and so on. This may work very badly for a freshman but the concept is similar to a liberal arts curriculum, where students are exposed to different disciplines for 1 or 2 years before they decide their major.

Amortized complexity optimization – CS3230 lecture on 13 Feb 2015

We use amortized complexity optimization in real life, for cleaning our rooms. Normally we do not clean our rooms every single day. We wait for the room to fall below a certain cleanliness standard or when there is an important visitor, then we start cleaning the room. Cleaning the room is an expensive operation which takes a lot of time. Hence, by doing it infrequently, only when absolutely necessary, we reduce the total amount of work needed to keep our room clean.

This idea is similar to amortized complexity optimization in algorithm analysis, where we optimize the average runtime to achieve better run time.

 

Other algorithms such as greedy algorithm and dynamic programming are also practised in real life(often without being realized).

 

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Programming concepts in real life – Interface

I did not know about the concept of interface until I took the module CS2020 where we use Java to learn data structures and algorithms. In the first few lectures, I was introduced to the idea of interface. I found it extremely intuitive and useful.

What is interface

In simple terms, an interface in programming is set of functions, but only names and descriptions of the functions, not the actual codes. You can write a program to implement(support) these instructions in some ways. Later, you can tell other programs that your program implements this interface and supports these instructions. Then, other programs will be able to directly execute the instructions without knowing how they are implemented. Interfaces can be extended so that the extended interfaces specifies additional functions.

Interface used in programming

One term that people often hear in tech news is API, which just is Application programming interface. With APIs, we can use functions that other applications implements in our own applications. The concept of interface is also important for the communication between hardware and the software. There is a communication layer between hardware and software called instruction set architecture (ISA), which specifies the operations that the processor should support so that the compliers(software) can use them. Then the actual implementation of the functions is done by the producer of the processor.

Interface in everyday life

However, I realised that the concept of interface is not limited to the field of programming. It is actually ubiquitous in our everyday real life as well. Think about the banks, they are essentially different implementations of the same interface – bank, which specifies 2 basic operations for customers: deposit and withdraw. Different banks would then go on and implement these two functions in different ways, then add some more functions that customers can perform using banks. This may lead to the problem of different banks having different functions and they are not compatible with each other. For example, cheques implemented in bank A may not be the same format as bank B. Hence, we still the concept of interface and by extending the interface to support more functions, different banks can communicate with each other.

More examples of interface in everyday life

Other examples of interface? You can just list almost everything.

A car? Yes, it is an interface that specifies functions like move, board, exit and etc.

A TV? Yes, it is an interface that specifies functions like display channel, switch channels, switch on, switch off, adjust volume and etc.

A house? Yes, it is an interface that specifies functions like live in, demolish, get address and etc.

People may think that, “Oh, actually this concept of interface has always been there before the invention of computers. What is the big deal?” That is precisely the big deal that I want to point out. Programming helps people to analyse and formulate things systematically. Although the concept has been always around, it was not formally identified and given a proper name so that it can be studied. Different sectors and fields do have their own regulating bodies but the more general concepts similar to interface are not explicitly there(or not conclusive to encompass all sectors). With programming terminologies, we are able to identify patterns or practices that are common across different fields and sectors and give it a generic name. I believe there are other programming concepts(perhaps object) with this ability, I just need to learn more and find out more.

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Linear Progression and Stages – Belief or fact

Linear progression is a good concept, it assumes that things go from stage 1 to stage 2, then to stage 3, and eventually reach the final stage. However, the fact that it is simple and nice does not justify its correctness.

In real life, many things do not go through linear progression, say the development of the country. One may argue that a country can only develop according to the sequence of stages in the development model, i.e. pre-industrial, industrial and post-industrial. However, this may not be true for some countries which jump from pre-industrial to post-industrial by some alternative ways. Also, common linear progression has an end point which is definite, but this can be a belief rather than a fact. For example, a U.S. citizen may think that capitalism is the end of the stages for ideology, whereas a PRC citizen may think communism is the real end. Clearly if the perceived end is different, the progression is not clear any more. A U.S. citizen may claim that U.S. is at the final stage of development, whereas a PRC citizen would reject that and say U.S. has yet to go through socialism to reach communism.

In fact, building on that idea of indefinite end, we will never know if the progression has come to an end. For example, current computer technology has evolved to a stage where ordinary people can get access to a computer easily. Is this the end of the progression for computer’s accessibility? I think not, one possible subsequent stage of development would be a “computer” planted inside each person. And even at that stage, we cannot conclude that we have come to the end of the progression.

Progression can also be in terms of humans’ development. A person goes through different stages as he/she grows up. It would be logical to think that everyone follows a linear progression of life, biologically, from young to old. However, the real maturity of each individual may develop in a non-linear progression. Some people grow up with care and love from parents hence slowly turn from immature to somewhat mature, then finally mature. Others may not have such privilege, they have to become mature immediately because they do not have such luxury of time to go through transition before facing the serious world.

Now if we take a step back and redefine linear progression as always going from early stages to later stages(like jumping from stage 1 to stage 3 and skipping stage 2, but not the other way round), would it be perfect to fit everything inside? It appears so. However, now the hard part would be to define the stages clearly so that they follow a total order. Progression like EQ or maturity are hard to define stages as there are just so many factors to consider.